Forex Major Currencies Outlook (September 6, 2013)

The ADP non-farm employment change was slightly below expectations but this doesn’t take away the possibility of a strong NFP release for today. The August reading is expected to come in at 178K, higher than the previous month’s 162K reading. A lower than expected figure might cast doubts on the Fed’s Septaper and trigger a dollar selloff. 

EUR

The euro sold off sharply during the ECB press conference that followed their interest rate decision. Governor Draghi mentioned that policymakers had discussed the possibility of lowering interest rates, as the recovery in the euro zone is still faced with several potential risks. He upgraded the growth forecast for the year, although the region is still expected to stay in contraction, then downgraded the GDP forecast for 2014. Only medium-tier reports are due from the euro zone today and these aren’t likely to have a huge impact on euro movement. 

GBP

The pound struggled to sustain its momentum in yesterday’s trading, as GBP/USD was weighed down by dollar strength. There were no major releases from the U.K. yesterday, as traders focused on the BOE rate decision. Carney did not make any huge waves since he simply reiterated his forward guidance and said that rate hikes aren’t to be expected in the near term. For today, UK manufacturing production and trade balance data are up for release. Manufacturing is expected to rise by 0.3%, weaker than the previous 1.9% jump. 

CHF

The franc lost a lot of ground to the dollar but managed to rally against the euro. There were no reports released from Switzerland yesterday while today’s schedule has Swiss foreign currency reserves and CPI on tap. Reserves are slated to rise above the previous 434.9 billion CHF reading while inflation could stay flat. Weaker than expected readings could mean more losses for the franc. 

JPY

The yen was still under heavy selling pressure, although the BOJ did not announce any actual monetary policy changes. Kuroda highlighted the recent improvements in the Japanese economy but also noted that the central bank is ready to ease further if the upcoming increase in sales tax weighs on overall economic activity. No major reports are due from Japan today, as the yen could keep selling off on the prospect of further BOJ easing. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls lost a bit of ground to the dollar in yesterday’s trading but were quick to bounce back in today’s Asian session. Australia printed a weak trade balance and actually showed a deficit, reflecting a downturn in export activity, particularly to China. Canada is set to print its jobs data and Ivey PMI later today. Employment could rebound by 21.2K while manufacturing could improve from 48.4 to 52.6. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way