Forex Major Currencies Outlook (September 4, 2013)

US data was stronger than expected, with the ISM manufacturing PMI climbing from 55.2 to 55.7 instead of dipping lower for the month of August. At the same time, the growing possibility of a US military strike on Syria is weighing on risk appetite and lifting the lower-yielding Greenback. Data due today is the trade balance, which is likely to show a wider deficit, and the Beige Book report.

EUR

The euro dipped to new lows against the U.S. dollar, as the Spanish unemployment change report printed a flat reading and put a halt to the country’s positive streak in hiring. For today, the euro zone is set to print services PMIs from Spain and Italy, both of which aren’t likely to have a huge impact on EUR/USD, based on the previous non-reaction to the manufacturing PMIs. Euro zone retail sales are also due today and a 0.5% rebound is eyed. 

GBP

The pound had a topsy-turvy trading against the dollar as the UK construction PMI also came in strong but failed to sustain GBP/USD’s rally. As it turns out, risk aversion still played a huge role in price action of dollar pairs yesterday. Services PMI is due from the UK today and another upside surprise is likely. 

CHF

The franc posted some gains against its counterparts when the Swiss GDP was released. The actual figure was stronger than expected at 0.5% versus the estimate at 0.3%, but still lower than the previous 0.6% growth figure. There are no reports due from Switzerland today, which suggests that franc trading could depend on market sentiment or its counterparts’ data. 

JPY

The yen continued to lose ground against most of its counterparts as the possibility of a sales tax increase fueled speculations of further easing from the BOJ. Although Abe stated that he won’t be making the decision until October, analysts are starting to price in the likelihood of more stimulus from the central bank as early as their rate statement this week. No reports are due from Japan today as traders could start positioning ahead of the BOJ statement tomorrow. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Australian dollar exhibited some resilience yesterday and earlier today, when the GDP report came in line with expectations. The actual report showed 0.6% growth, but the previous quarter’s reading was revised lower. Still, this was enough to push AUD/USD above the .9050 level. Canada will print its trade balance later on today and possibly show a smaller deficit, but the bigger mover for the Loonie is the BOC rate statement. No actual changes are expected so stay tuned for Poloz’s accompanying statement. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way.