Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Sept 30, 2015)

Data from the US was better than expected, with the CB consumer confidence index rising from 101.3 to 103.0, reflecting stronger optimism. For today, the ADP non-farm employment change report is due and it might show a climb from 190K to 192K, suggesting a possible upside surprise in the NFP. Also lined up today is the Chicago PMI and a testimony by Fed head Yellen.

EUR

The euro continued to advance against most of its forex peers, albeit at a slightly slower pace. Data from the euro zone was weaker than expected, as the German preliminary CPI indicated a 0.2% drop versus the projected 0.1% decline while the Spanish flash CPI came in at -0.9% versus -0.6%. Employment and consumer spending reports are lined up from France and Germany today, with strong figures likely to give the shared currency another boost.

GBP

The pound was still unable to recover in recent trading, despite stronger than expected data from the UK. Net lending to individuals came in at 4.3 billion GBP versus the projected 4.1 billion GBP figure while the CBI realized sales index jumped from 24 to 49. UK current account balance and final GDP readings are up for release today, as strong data could allow the UK currency to gain traction.

CHF

The franc advanced to the dollar once more, even though there were no reports out of Switzerland. Today has the KOF economic barometer on tap and a climb from 100.7 to 101.2 is expected, possibly spurring more gains for the Swiss currency.

JPY

The yen raked in gains during the earlier trading sessions, thanks to falling Asian equities. Earlier today, Japan printed a weaker than expected 0.8% gain retail sales versus the projected 1.2% annualized increase. Industrial production was also weaker than expected since the report showed a 0.5% drop instead of the estimated 1.1% gain while the previous reading suffered a downgrade.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were off to a shaky start but managed to hold on to their current levels when risk appetite returned in the latter trading sessions. Underlying inflation readings from Canada came in better than expected while New Zealand reported a climb in its ANZ business confidence index from -29.1 to -18.1. Australian building approvals data is still due and a 1.8% decline is eyed. Later on, Canada will release its monthly GDP reading and the US will print its latest crude oil inventories update.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way