Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Sept 12, 2014)

Data from the US economy was weaker than expected, as initial jobless claims showed a 315K reading, higher than the estimated 306K figure. For today, retail sales reports are due, with the headline figure slated to show a 0.3% gain and the core figure likely to print a 0.2% uptick. Stronger than expected data could be positive for the US dollar, along with positive consumer sentiment reports.

EUR

The euro consolidated against the dollar in recent trading, as there have been no surprises from the euro zone economy recently. German CPI stayed flat as expected while French CPI also came in line with estimates of a 0.4% uptick. Euro zone industrial production and employment change data are due today and another round of weaker than expected figures might lead to more selling for euro pairs.

GBP

The pound managed to erase some of its recent losses as concerns of Scottish independence appeared to fade. There were no reports released from the UK economy yesterday while today has the construction output and leading index due. For now, early polls on Scottish independence might play a major role in pound price action, with growing margins in favor of independence likely to result in pound selling.

CHF

 The pound recovered some of its losses in the latest trading sessions, as concerns of potential SNB intervention eased. There are no reports due from Switzerland today so franc movement might hinge on euro zone events or market sentiment.

JPY

 The yen lost further ground to the dollar but was able to bounce back against some of its higher-yielding counterparts, except for the pound. Data from Japan has surprised to the upside, with the BSI manufacturing index landing back in positive territory and reflecting expansion. For today, revised industrial production data and BOJ Governor Kuroda’s speech are lined up.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

 Comdolls continued to weaken as Chinese CPI figures disappointed, with the headline figure falling from 2.3% to 2.0% and producer prices hinting at a deeper slowdown in inflation. Not even the strong Australian jobs report was able to shore up the Aussie, as components revealed that the gains were spurred mostly by part-time hiring. In Canada, NHPI was flat instead of marking a 0.2% gain. Chinese money supply data was weaker than expected, putting more weight on commodity currencies once more. Chinese industrial production and fixed asset investment data are due over the weekend.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way