Forex Major Currencies Outlook (November 5, 2013)

Data from the US was a bit weak, as the September factory orders report printed a lower than expected 1.7% increase while the August data showed a 0.1% decline. Around the same time, FOMC members Powell and Rosengren expressed inclination for keeping bond purchases unchanged for the meantime, which suggests that a taper in December is not very likely. US ISM non-manufacturing PMI is up for release today and a dip from 54.4 to 54.2 is expected, but an upside surprise might lead to more gains for the dollar. 

EUR

The euro managed to bounce off the recent lows, as euro zone reported an improvement in Sentix investor confidence. The figure climbed from 6.1 to 9.3, surpassing the consensus at 6.3. Spanish manufacturing PMI came in line with consensus at 50.9 while Italy’s PMI fell short at 50.7. Spanish employment change data is up for release today and an increase from 25.6K to 31.3K is expected. Also due today are the EU economic forecasts and any downgrades could spark a deeper selloff for euro pairs. 

GBP

The pound was able to hold steady above the 1.5900 major psychological support yesterday when the UK construction PMI came in better than expected. The reading climbed from 58.9 to 59.4 in October, reflecting stronger expansion in the manufacturing sector. The services PMI is up for release today and the index is expected to rise from 60.3 to 60.4, although an upside surprise could also be possible and help the pound extend its gains. 

CHF

 
The franc was stuck in consolidation to the US dollar yesterday but it did manage to score a few gains. There were no reports released from Switzerland then but today could be a different story since the CPI figure is due. The report could show a 0.1% uptick in price levels, a bit weaker compared to the previous 0.3% increase. 

JPY

The Japanese yen was able to regain ground against most of its counterparts in today’s trading session after a bit of consolidation yesterday. There were no reports released from Japan then. Today, traders are waiting to hear from BOJ Governor Kuroda and his speech might provide additional volatility for yen pairs towards the end of the Asian session. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were unable to make much headway yesterday, as USD/CAD bounced off the 1.0400 handle while NZD/USD moved sideways around .8250. Data from Australia was mixed, as the HPI disappointed while the retail sales report showed a better than expected 0.8% uptick. The RBA is set to make its monetary policy decision today and possibly highlight the recent improvements in China and Australia. New Zealand jobs data is due in the next Asian session so NZD/USD might see some breakouts then. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way