Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 20,2017)

Building starts jumped from 1.23M to 1.30M versus the consensus at 1.25M while housing starts rose from 1.14M to 1.29M. Only the CB leading index is due today and analysts are expecting to see a 0.6% rebound after the earlier 0.2% dip.

EUR

The euro was off to a weak start on reports that German talks for a three-way coalition broke down. Angela Merkel is scheduled to meet with the German President to inform him that she failed to form a coalition with the Greens and FDP, which could lead to a call for elections again and more political uncertainty. Euro zone current account balance turned out stronger than expected on Friday and Draghi has a speech today.

GBP

The pound was also one of the weaker performers even though there were no major reports out of the UK. Political uncertainty is also in play, along with Brexit risks on businesses. BOE MPC member Ramsden has a testimony lined up today but traders could hold out for the Inflation Report hearings and Autumn Forecast Statement lined up later in the week.

CHF

The franc regained ground to most of its counterparts as it enjoyed most of the safe-haven gains. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday and none are due today so market sentiment could stay in play.

JPY

The yen also raked in plenty of gains at the end of the week as risk appetite was feeble. Over the weekend, Japan printed a stronger than expected trade surplus of 0.32 trillion JPY versus the projected 0.21 trillion JPY figure and the earlier 0.27 trillion JPY reading. There are no reports due from Japan today so the yen could take its cue from market sentiment or bond yields. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie chalked up losses across the board but recovered some against the euro. The Loonie also weakened even though inflation readings were actually slightly better than expected. In New Zealand, the food price index posted a sharper 1.1% drop versus the earlier 0.2% dip. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from  Trader's Way