Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 4, 2015)

The ISM manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations when it held steady at 51.5 instead of improving to the estimated 52.1 reading. Construction spending was also weaker than expected with a 0.6% decline instead of the estimated 0.5% uptick. For today, only the US factory orders report is lined up as traders brace themselves for bigger reports due later on.

EUR

The euro was able to hold on to its recent gains when data from the euro zone came in mostly in line with expectations. The headline CPI estimate for April improved from -0.1% to 0.0% while the core CPI estimate was unchanged at 0.6%. However, data from Germany fell short of consensus, as retail sales and hiring showed weakness. The jobless rate in the region also failed to improve from its 11.3% reading when analysts were expecting to see a drop to 11.2%. Final manufacturing PMI readings are due from the euro zone’s top economies today.

GBP

The pound was in a weak spot last Friday, as the UK manufacturing PMI turned out to be a disappointment. The index slipped from a downgraded 54.0 reading to 51.9 instead of improving to the estimated 54.6 figure. Mortgage approvals was also subpar at 61K versus the consensus at 64K. For today, UK banks are on holiday and traders are focusing on the potential impact of the upcoming election on the pound.

CHF

The franc continued to advance against the dollar last week, even though Swiss banks were on a holiday last Friday. The Swiss manufacturing PMI is up for release today and an improvement from 47.9 to 48.2 is eyed. This should reflect a smaller contraction in the industry, which might allow the franc to resume its climb.

JPY

The yen gave up ground to its counterparts despite relatively stronger than expected data from Japan. The national core CPI improved from 2.0% to 2.2% while household spending showed a smaller than expected slide. Japanese banks are on holiday today, which suggests limited liquidity in the Asian trading session.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls took a hit on Friday even though data from China came in line with expectations. The final manufacturing PMI for April was unchanged at 50.1 while the non-manufacturing PMI dipped from 53.7 to 53.4. However, the HSBC final manufacturing PMI released earlier today indicated a downgrade from 49.2 to 48.9, reflecting a sharper contraction in the industry. In Australia, building approvals ticked up by 2.8% versus the projected 1.7% decline.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way