Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 29, 2014)

There were no reports released from the US economy yesterday while today has the revised GDP reading, initial jobless claims, and pending home sales data on tap. The Q1 GDP figure could see a downward revision from 0.1% to -0.6%, which could be negative for the US dollar. Initial jobless claims might dip from 326K to 321K while pending home sales could chalk up a 1.1% gain.

EUR

The euro fell to its major counterparts when data from Germany and France missed expectations. French consumer spending slipped by 0.3% instead of gaining by the estimated 0.5% figure while Germany showed a 24K rise in joblessness instead of the 14K projected decline. Euro zone economies are on holiday today which means thinner liquidity and possibly higher volatility in today’s London trading session. There are no major reports up for release from the region.

GBP

The pound made a strong break below a significant support area against the dollar, signaling that longer-term losses might be in the cards. UK CBI realized sales slipped from 30 to 16 instead of improving to the forecast at 36. Only the GfK consumer confidence index in the UK is due today and a small improvement from -3 to -2 is eyed, reflecting a lower degree of pessimism, but a weaker than expected result might lead to a deeper pound selloff.

CHF

The franc struggled to hold on to its recent gains and managed to reduce its losses despite the weaker than expected Swiss GDP reading for the first quarter. The economy grew by 0.5% instead of the estimated 0.6% reading, but this was still stronger compared to the previous 0.2% GDP figure. There are no reports due from Switzerland today as Swiss banks are on holiday.

JPY

The yen continued to gain ground against its counterparts on the heels of BOJ optimism, but gave up some wins when the retail sales figure showed a 4.4% decline. Take note that this includes the April sales tax hike effect and that markets are expecting further weakness in the upcoming reports. Household spending, CPI, industrial production, and the jobless rate are due in tomorrow’s early Asian trading session.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi was a big loser in recent trading as NZD/USD broke below a key support level. Fonterra announced that it would reduce payouts to producers and estimated lower milk prices in the coming months, possibly enough for the RBNZ to downgrade its growth and inflation forecasts and rethink its hawkish stance. In Canada, the current account reading is up for release but traders might sit on their hands ahead of tomorrow’s GDP report. Australia reported a 4.2% decline in quarterly private capital expenditure, worse than the estimated 1.6% drop.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way