Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 16, 2013)

The Empire State manufacturing index turned out to be a huge disappointment as it printed a -1.4 figure instead of the estimated improvement from 3.1 to 3.6. Producer price levels have also disappointed as a 0.7% decline in input prices was recorded for May, its largest drop in three years. This goes to show that inflation is still weak in the country, which means the Fed might not tighten monetary policy just yet. For today, watch out for the CPI, housing figures, and Philly Fed index. Note that weak data could drive the dollar lower against its counterparts again.

EUR

Weaker than expected GDP readings from euro zone’s largest economies put the entire region deeper in recession for the first quarter of the year. The GDP reading showed a 0.2% contraction, worse than the estimated 0.1% downtick in growth. This suggests that the ECB could move forward with its plan to implement negative deposit rates and possibly increase its purchases of corporate and long-term bonds just to boost the economy. Only medium-tier data are set for release today but these leading indicators could force the euro to resume its drop if they come in weak.

GBP

The pound managed to hold on to its recent levels against the U.S. dollar as the U.K. claimant count change beat expectations. The report showed a 7.3K drop in the number of people claiming jobless benefits for April, allowing the jobless rate to drop from 7.9% to 7.8%. There are no major reports due from the U.K. today which suggests that pound price action could be dependent on market sentiment and U.S. reports.

CHF

Switzerland reported a huge drop in its ZEW economic expectations figure from 20.0 to 2.2 in May, reflecting weaker optimism for the country’s economic outlook. Nonetheless, the franc was able to rebound against the euro and the dollar in yesterday’s trading as both the euro zone and U.S. printed weak data. For today, there are no major reports from Switzerland, which suggests that franc trading could be dependent on market sentiment or data from other economies.

JPY

The Japanese yen made a small recovery against some of its major counterparts in yesterday’s trading, as USD/JPY fell short of hitting the 103.00 handle. EUR/JPY suffered a similar selloff as GDP figures from the euro zone while other yen pairs managed to hold on to their recent levels. Japan’s industrial production report came in better than expected as it showed a 0.9% uptick, higher than the estimated 0.2% increase. No other reports are due from Japan for the rest of the day.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The commodity currencies managed to pare their losses against the U.S. dollar as a weak round of data from the U.S. kept dollar gains at bay. These currencies were also able to hold steady against the yen. There were no major reports released from Australia and New Zealand recently, but Canada did print a weaker than expected manufacturing sales report. This showed a 0.3% drop in sales instead of the estimated 0.6% growth. Only the producer prices report is due from New Zealand in the next few trading hours, leaving the commodity currencies dependent on market sentiment.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way