Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 14, 2013)

The headline figure showed a 0.1% increase instead of the estimated 0.3% drop while the core version of the report printed a 0.1% downtick as expected. There are no major reports due from the U.S. today, which suggests quiet trading for most dollar pairs, but it would be helpful to keep your eyes and ears peeled for any comments from Fed officials regarding the schedule and scale of their planned withdrawal of stimulus. Any hints that the Fed is ready to wind down their bond purchases soon could send the dollar rallying once more.

EUR

The euro is still trying to hold on to the 1.3000 handle against the U.S. dollar, as today’s set of euro zone data could determine whether it’ll hold or break. Germany is set to print its ZEW economic expectations report in today’s European session and possibly show an improvement from 36.3 to 39.5, which could boost the euro. The region could see its ZEW figure improve from 24.9 to 27.3, also a potential boost to the euro.

GBP

The pound has sold off strongly against the U.S. dollar recently even though the BOE didn’t ease monetary policy last week. Traders are probably starting to price in their expectations for the claimant count change report due later on in the week and possibly expecting cautious comments from BOE Governor King. No reports are due from the U.K. today.

CHF

The Swissy lost a lot of ground to the U.S. dollar, which has enjoyed additional strength from the recent retail sales release. Swiss retail sales have disappointed with a 0.9% decline instead of the estimated 1.0% jump in consumer spending. For today, there are no major reports from Switzerland but the downbeat economic outlook is likely to keep dragging the franc lower.

JPY

The Japanese yen is slowly recovering against the U.S. dollar as USD/JPY appears to be having trouble breaking above 102.00. A potential retracement play could work, especially since Japan is set to print its preliminary GDP report later on this week. No reports are due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

Commodity currencies seem to have stalled from their recent selloffs today as AUD/USD struggles to climb back to parity while NZD/USD found support around .8250. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies for the week, except for the Canadian CPI release on Friday, so the behavior of the comdoll pairs could hinge on dollar demand.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way