Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 05, 2017)

Medium-tier reports such as the Q1 unit labor costs and productivity turned out stronger than expected, along with initial jobless claims and Challenger job cuts figures. The NFP report is due today and an increase of 194K in hiring is eyed, much better than the earlier 98K increase.

EUR

The euro continued to rake in gains against its peers as most of the final services PMI readings enjoyed upgrades and the Spanish unemployment change report showed a larger than expected fall in joblessness. Euro zone retail sales also turned out better than expected with a 0.3% uptick. Only the retail PMI is due from the euro zone today but the shared currency could make another set of gains after the weekend's French presidential elections.

GBP

The pound also extended its climb when the UK services PMI beat expectations. The reading rose from 55.0 to 55.8 to reflect a faster pace of industry growth instead of dipping to 54.6. There are no major reports due from the UK today so euro zone events and Brexit-related updates could push pound pairs around. 

CHF

The franc regained ground to the dollar but was still weak against its other European rivals. The Swiss SECO consumer climate index fell from -3 to -8 instead of improving to the consensus at +3. Swiss foreign currency reserves data is due today and a large increase in holdings could be evidence of currency intervention.

JPY

The yen continued to bleed against most of its rivals as the pickup in US bond yields drew traders away from the Japanese currency. Japanese banks are still closed for the holiday so there have been no reports to boost the yen, which might keep reacting to US reports until the end of this week.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were among the weakest performers, led by the Aussie which is reeling from downbeat trade balance data and weak Chinese PMI. Australia's trade surplus narrowed from 3.66 billion AUD to 3.11 billion AUD versus the projected fall to 3.33 billion AUD while Canada's trade deficit narrowed from 1.1 billion CAD to 0.1 billion CAD instead of turning to a surplus of 0.3 billion CAD. New Zealand's inflation expectations ticked up from 1.9% to 2.2% and Canada's jobs figures are coming up.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way