Forex Major Currencies Outlook (March 22, 2013)

During yesterday’s U.S. session, the dollar lost ground to most of its major counterparts as risk appetite improved across the markets when Cyprus showed signs of delivering an actual bailout deal soon. Data has been mixed as existing home sales fell below expectations and came in at 4.98 million instead of 5.02 million for February while the Philly Fed index landed at 2.0 instead of the estimated -1.6 reading.

JPY: Bearish

Although newly-appointed BOJ head Kuroda’s speech turned out to be a non-event in yesterday’s trading, sentiment for the yen is still bearish as the central bank remains committed to aggressive monetary policy easing measures. Kuroda didn’t exactly specify what kind of “bold quantitative and qualitative” policies he had in mind as he is probably waiting to discuss his plans with the BOJ officials first. No reports are due from Japan today but expectations of further easing from the BOJ in the longer term could drag the yen down.

EUR: Bullish

After recently rejecting the bailout deal from the Troika, the Cypriot parliament was given until next Monday to come up with an alternative plan. Many are hopeful that Cyprus’ lawmakers will be able to draft one up before the deadline, possibly over the weekend, in order to avoid losing necessary capital to shore up its troubled banks. As for economic releases, only the German Ifo business climate report is set for release from the euro zone today. An improvement from 107.4 to 107.8 is expected for March and a stronger than expected result could boost the euro against its major counterparts today.

GBP: Bullish

The pound has been trading choppily for the past few days against the U.S. dollar but the general trend is up. In fact, an inverse head and shoulders pattern seems to be forming on the 4-hour time frame with the neckline located around the 1.5200 major psychological resistance. There are no economic reports due from the U.K. today, which opens the possibility for sideways movement for the rest of the trading day, but improved risk appetite and economic prospects in the U.K. could keep this pair climbing.

CHF: Neutral

There are no reports due from Switzerland today, which suggests that Swiss franc pairs could keep moving sideways until the end of the week. Keep an eye out for updates from the euro zone, particularly those regarding Cyprus’ bailout situation, as this could affect the movement of European currencies.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD): Neutral

There are no major reports from Australia, Canada, or New Zealand today as the commodity currencies could simply move according to risk sentiment in the markets. So far, risk appetite has been improving, as there have been no major threats to the global economy for the past few trading days. Stay tuned for any updates regarding Cyprus’ bailout deal as a new one could help boost higher-yielding currencies once more.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way