Forex Major Currencies Outlook (March 11, 2014)

For today, JOLTS job openings data and the NFIB small business index are the only reports on the US calendar and these aren’t likely to cause huge waves among dollar pairs. Analysts speculate that the US dollar could stay supported in the near term though, as the recently released NFP figure pointed to a recovery in the jobs market.

EUR

The euro retreated to the dollar in recent trading, as data from the euro zone came in mostly weaker than expected. French industrial production showed a 0.2% decline instead of the estimated 0.6% uptick while the previous figure was downgraded. Italian industrial production was stronger than expected with a 1.0% increase versus the estimated 0.4% growth while the previous figure was upgraded. However, euro zone Sentix investor confidence fell short of expectations when it climbed from 13.3 to 13.9, weaker than the estimated 14.3 figure. German trade balance is the only report due from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound gave up ground to the dollar in recent trading sessions, as the UK BRC retail sales monitor chalked up a 1.0% decline. This pushed GBP/USD down to the 1.6650 minor psychological level in Asian trading, although the pair is nearing a support zone. UK inflation report hearings and manufacturing production are lined up for today and this should determine whether pound pairs will retreat further or bounce higher. Manufacturing production is likely to show another 0.3% uptick but a stronger than expected reading might give pound pairs a strong boost.

CHF

The franc paused from its recent rallies to the dollar when Swiss retail sales printed weaker than expected results. It showed a mere 0.3% increase when analysts were expecting to see 2.7% growth, although the previous figure was upgraded to 2.5%. There are no reports due from Switzerland today so the franc might have a chance at resuming its drop if traders don’t favor the US dollar in today’st rading sessions.

JPY

Yen pairs stayed stuck in consolidation in the past few hours as traders await the BOJ interest rate decision. No actual policy changes are anticipated, as central bankers are still waiting to assess the impact of the upcoming sales tax increase on overall economic performance. Japanese exports have been lagging though and this issue might come up in today’s BOJ press conference.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls did enjoy a bit of support in recent trading, even though risk appetite seems to have weakened. The New Zealand dollar got a boost from PM John Key when he spoke of the need to bring interest rates back to normal levels. This set the stage for this week’s RBNZ interest rate decision, confirming that the central bank is likely to hike. As for Canada, housing starts were stronger than expected at 192K, enough to give the Loonie a chance to rally yesterday. In Australia, NAB business confidence showed a small decline.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way