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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 30, 2017)

USD

Dollar pairs were moving mostly sideways in the past few trading session as traders were on edge with the Brexit developments in Europe.

Investors are also waiting for more clues from the Trump administration on their reform agenda. Data from the US economy has been stronger than expected with a 5.5% jump in pending home sales. Final GDP data is due today and a small upgrade from 1.9% to 2.0% is expected.

EUR

The euro tumbled across the board on Brexit jitters even as economic data came in stronger than expected. German import prices rose 0.7% versus the projected 0.4% uptick but this was still weaker compared to the earlier 0.9% gain. Spanish and German flash CPI readings are up for release today and a strong pickup in price levels could be enough to shore up the scared currency.

GBP

The pound managed to shield itself from huge losses as Brexit-related events went by without a hitch. Prime Minister May's letter to the EU was cordial and open to compromise while the response from Tusk was diplomatic as well. There are no major reports due from the UK today so traders could keep close tabs on the dialogue between the UK government and EU officials.

CHF

The franc reacted mostly to currency-specific events but gave up ground to its non-European counterparts. The Swiss UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.44 to 1.50 to indicate improvement in the sector and the KOF economic barometer is up for release today. A dip from 107.2 to 105.9 is eyed.

JPY

The Japanese yen managed to rake in gains on risk-off flows even though Japanese retail sales turned out weaker than expected. Retail sales ticked up by a measly 0.1% versus the projected 0.7% gain and the earlier 1.0% increase. There are no reports due from Japan today so market sentiment could keep pushing yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls gave up some ground on risk aversion but managed to edge higher against the European currencies. US crude oil inventories rose by 0.9 million barrels, lower than the projected buildup of 1.2 million barrels. Underlying inflation figures from Canada are up for release today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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