Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 2, 2015)

Risk aversion is still present in the financial markets, supporting the US dollar along with the renewal of the Fed’s hawkish bias. US core PCE price index, the Fed’s rumored preferred measure of inflation, is up for release today and a pickup in price levels might lead to more dollar gains. Also lined up for today are data on personal spending and income, along with the ISM manufacturing PMI. Traders are likely to pay close attention to the ISM labor component, which might contain clues for the upcoming NFP release.

EUR

The euro is back on a weak spot once more, as traders are starting to price in expectations for the ECB statement this week. For today, flash CPI readings from the region are due and the headline figure might indicate a 0.5% decline while the core version of the report could show a 0.6% increase. Euro zone unemployment rate is also up for release today and an 11.4% figure is eyed.

GBP

The pound managed to stay resilient at the end of the trading week, even as risk aversion popped its head back in the markets. UK manufacturing PMI is up for release today and analysts are expecting to see an increase from 53.0 to 53.5, which would reflect stronger industry expansion. Stronger than expected data could lead to a bigger bounce for the pound, as this would support the BOE’s claims that lower inflation is leading to better growth prospects.

CHF

The franc was sold off on Friday when SNB officials reiterated that they’d like to see more currency weakness. So far, the central bank has refrained from introducing large intervention moves in the currency market, but their jawboning is preventing the currency from rallying. Swiss manufacturing PMI is due today and a drop from 48.2 to 47.4 is expected, which might lead to more franc selling.

JPY

The yen gave up a lot of ground to the dollar and some gains to its other counterparts, as traders speculated about further BOJ easing after Japan printed weak reports. Its national core inflation fell from 2.5% to 2.2% while the Tokyo core CPI managed to hold steady at 2.2%. Household spending and retail sales both disappointed but preliminary industrial production was promising. Earlier today, Japanese capital spending showed a smaller than expected quarterly gain.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls resumed their slide on Friday, as traders booked profits off the recent rallies. Over the weekend, China’s official PMI readings were less impressive than expected, as the manufacturing PMI landed at 49.9, short of indicating industry expansion. On the upside, the HSBC final manufacturing PMI was revised up from 50.1 to 50.7 for February. No other major reports are lined up from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way