Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 4, 2015)

Data from the US economy was mixed, with the ADP non-farm employment change coming in slightly above expectations and showing a 201K gain. However, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell short of consensus and showed the lowest employment index in four months, suggesting that the NFP reading might also come up short. For today, only the initial jobless claims and revised non-farm productivity data are up for release, as dollar pairs could consolidate ahead of the NFP.

EUR

The euro surged against its forex counterparts upon hearing that the ECB has no plans of either front-loading or tapering its QE program. Governor Draghi also mentioned that they might extend their program past September 2016 if the euro zone economy fails to meet their inflation targets then. Data from the euro zone was mostly stronger than expected, with significant gains in the jobs sector, allowing the euro to advance against its rivals. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound gave up ground in recent trading after the UK printed a weaker than expected services PMI. The reading slipped from 59.5 to 56.5, lower than the projected dip to 59.2. For today, the BOE interest rate decision is lined up and no actual monetary policy changes are expected. The pound’s reaction might also be limited as traders could wait for the minutes of the meeting to be released before placing larger positions.

CHF

The franc took its cue from the euro and advanced against its forex counterparts. There have been no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today, indicating that the franc might keep following in the euro’s footsteps.

JPY

The yen regained a bit of ground to the dollar but was a big loser against the euro, as the Japanese currency functioned more as a counter currency in recent trading. There have been no major reports out of Japan then and none are due today, which suggests that risk flows could continue to push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls showed further weakness in recent trading sessions, as Canada printed a weaker than expected trade balance while Australia’s retail sales and trade balance also missed forecasts. Later today, Canada will print its Ivey PMI reading and possibly show a drop from 58.2 to 55.1, which might lead to more weakness for the Loonie. There are no reports due from New Zealand today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way