Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 15, 2016)

Headline retail sales rose 0.5% versus the 0.4% consensus while core retail sales came in line with expectations of a 0.4% gain. Import prices posted a stronger than expected 1.4% increase while business inventories were lower. No actual rate changes are expected from the Fed today but a reiteration of their hawkish bias could revive dollar strength.

EUR

The euro was stuck in consolidation to the dollar but was weaker against its other counterparts. Data from the euro zone was actually stronger than expected, with quarterly employment up 0.3% versus the 0.2% consensus and industrial production up by 1.1%. Only the euro zone trade balance is lined up today.

GBP

The pound continued to reel from Brexit updates, as another poll showed a lead in favor of those voting to exit. UK CPI was also weaker than expected, as both headline and core figures didn't budge. The UK jobs report is due today and a 0.1K drop in claimants is eyed while the average earnings index could slide from 2.0% to 1.7%. 

CHF

The franc was able to benefit from the risk-off moves in the forex market and the stronger than expected Swiss PPI. Producer prices rose 0.4% versus the projected 0.1% uptick. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The yen continued to rake in gains on risk aversion and also got a boost from a positive revision in Japan's industrial production figure. The reading was upgraded from 0.3% to 0.5%, higher than the estimated 0.4% reading. There are no reports due from Japan today, keeping risk sentiment in play.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls had a mixed performance as they lost ground to the yen but advanced against the euro and pound. Data from Australia has indicated weakness, as the NAB business confidence index fell from 5 to 3 while the Westpac consumer sentiment reading showed a 1.0% decline. New Zealand's current account balance showed a wider than expected surplus of 1.31 billion NZD. Canadian manufacturing sales and the New Zealand GDT auction are lined up next, along with the New Zealand GDP for Q1.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way