Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 13, 2015)

Data from the US was weaker than expected last Friday, as wholesale inventories showed a 0.8% figure versus the projected 0.3% reading, reflecting oversupply. There are no major reports lined up from the US economy today, as risk sentiment could be responsible for the dollar’s price action.

EUR

The euro gapped down against its forex rivals when Greece was unable to get its reform plans approved. More meetings are scheduled for the rest of the week and the lack of any resolution could keep bearish pressure on the euro. Data from the euro zone came in mixed on Friday, as the French industrial production fell short of expectations with a 0.4% gain while the Italian industrial production figure showed a stronger than expected 0.9% increase. No reports are lined up from the region today, with the focus mostly on the Eurogroup meetings.

GBP

The pound resumed its selloff to most of its currency counterparts, despite the stronger than expected trade balance release from the UK last Friday. The deficit narrowed from 9.4 billion GBP to 8.0 billion GBP, reflecting an improvement in trade activity. The BOE credit conditions report is up for release today and this should provide a picture of borrowing activity in the economy.

CHF

The franc followed in the euro’s footsteps and sold off against most of its rivals when the Greek debt talks failed to put an end to the current crisis. There were no reports from Switzerland then and none are due today, indicating that Greek updates could continue to push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen continued to give up ground against its rivals when data from Japan came in mixed earlier today. This allowed yen pairs to quickly fill the gaps from the weekend. The industrial production figure saw a small upgrade from -2.2% to -2.1% but the tertiary industry activity index printed a worse than expected 0.7% drop instead of the projected 0.2% dip.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls drew a bit of support from better than expected export figures from China, even though the headline trade balance showed a smaller than expected surplus. Imports also logged in a 6.7% decline, suggesting weaker demand for raw materials and commodities. There are no reports lined up from Australia, New Zealand, and Canada today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way