Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 04, 2017)

The reading climbed from 54.9 to 57.8 versus the projected 55.0 figure, buoyed by stronger hiring, new orders, and production. The index for prices dropped while inventories slid also. US banks are closed for the Fourth of July holiday today so low liquidity is expected. 

EUR

The euro returned some of its recent wins as final manufacturing PMI readings from its top economies saw some downgrades. In addition, the Spanish manufacturing PMI dipped from 55.4 to 54.7 instead of improving to 55.6. Only the Spanish unemployment change report is due from the euro zone today and analysts are expecting to see a 120.3K drop in joblessness. 

GBP

The pound chalked up losses across the board after the UK manufacturing PMI turned out weaker than expected. The reading dropped from a downgraded 56.3 figure to 54.3 instead of improving to 56.4. UK construction PMI is due today and a fall from 56 to 55 is eyed, with a weaker than expected result likely to push the UK currency much lower. 

CHF 

The franc gave up ground to the dollar and the comdolls but managed to hold steady versus the pound. Swiss retail sales turned out better than expected with a 0.3% year-over-year decline versus the projected 0.8% drop and the earlier 0.9% slide. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today. 

JPY

The yen resumed its slide against its counterparts as rising US bond yields drew traders away from the lower-yielding Japanese currency. The Tankan manufacturing index is up from 17 to 12 versus the consensus at 15 while the non-manufacturing index rose from 20 to 23, just a notch short of the estimate at 24. Japanese consumer confidence took a hit as the index dipped from 43.6 to 43.3. The BOJ core CPI is due today and a rise from 0.2% to 0.3% is eyed. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were off to a good start after China's Caixin manufacturing PMI returned to industry expansion with a rise from 49.6 to 50.4. Canadian banks were closed for the holiday but the Loonie managed to rake in gains on higher oil prices due to the dip in US rig counts. Australian retail sales and the RBA statement are lined up next. A slower rise in consumer spending is eyed and no rate changes are expected from the Australian central bank. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way