Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 03, 2017)

Personal income was stronger than expected at 0.4% versus 0.3% while personal spending came in line with expectations of a 0.1% uptick. The Chicago PMI and revised UoM consumer sentiment index also surpassed estimates while the core PCE price index printed the expected 0.1% gain. The ISM manufacturing PMI is due today and a rise from 54.9 to 55.0 is eyed. 

EUR

The euro returned some of its recent gains even with stronger than expected flash CPI readings. The headline figure dipped from 1.4% to 1.3% versus the 1.2% consensus while the core reading rose from 0.9% to 1.1% vs. the 1.0% estimate. German and French consumer spending numbers also turned out stronger than expected. Final manufacturing PMI readings and the region's unemployment rate are due today. 

GBP

The pound had a mixed run as medium-tier releases also turned out mixed. The final GDP reading was unchanged at 0.2% as expected while the current account balance beat consensus. Business investment was unchanged at 0.6% as expected. UK manufacturing PMI is due today and a dip from 56.7 to 56.4 is eyed. 

CHF

The franc gave up some ground to its rivals as profit-taking took place on Friday. Swiss data was actually better than expected with the KOF economic barometer up from 102.0 to 105.5 versus the projected 102.5 figure. Swiss retail sales is due today and a 0.8% year-over-year decline compared to the earlier 1.2% drop is expected. 

JPY

The yen was still the weakest in the bunch as Japanese inflation readings were weaker than expected. In particular, Tokyo's core figure was flat instead of posting the projected 0.2% uptick. Preliminary industrial production slumped 3.3% versus the projected 3.1% decline. Earlier today, the Tankan survey reported gains for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, although the latter came up short. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls are off to a good start after China's Caixin PMI turned out stronger than expected. This follows last week's official PMI figures, which also reflected gains for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. Canadian banks are closed for the holiday today. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way