Forex Major Currencies Outlook (February 12, 2014)

However, her speech didn’t contain any surprises as she simply confirmed that the Fed would carry on with its taper plans originally set by former Fed head Bernanke. There are no major reports lined up from the US today so dollar behavior might hinge on risk sentiment. Still, keep an eye out for the release of crude oil inventories and the Federal budget balance in today’s New York session.

EUR

The euro gave up some of its recent gains to the dollar when Yellen emphasized that the US central bank would carry on with its taper plans. There were no reports to keep the euro supported then. Euro zone industrial production is up for release today and a 0.2% decline is expected to follow the previous month’s 1.8% jump. ECB President Draghi is also set to testify and might spur additional volatility among euro pairs.

GBP

The pound spiked up to the dollar in recent trading but lacked the momentum to push higher. The BRC retail sales monitor showed a 3.9% increase, better than the previous 0.4% uptick. The BOE inflation report is up for release today, along with BOE Governor Carney’s speech. No major announcements are expected so it will be interesting to see whether Carney retains his previous monetary policy bias or not.

CHF

The Swiss franc returned some of its recent returns to the US dollar, as there were nor reports from Switzerland to give the franc a boost in recent trading. Swiss CPI is up for release today and a 0.3% decline is expected to follow the previous month’s 0.2% dip, possibly reigniting fears of deflation in the country.

JPY

Yen pairs continued to climb up the charts in recent trading, as Japanese traders were on holiday yesterday. Asian equities ended higher when risk appetite improved but the Nikkei was unable to benefit from this since Japan’s stock market was closed then. Earlier today, Japan printed a couple of weak data points with a 15.7% decline in core machinery orders and a 0.4% dip in tertiary industry activity. No other reports are lined up from Japan today but the weak figures might spur a decline for the Nikkei and yen pairs.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls held on to their recent wins in yesterday’s trading as risk sentiment improved. AUD/USD managed to stay above the .9000 major psychological level while NZD/USD stayed on track to its climb to .8400. However, the Westpac consumer sentiment report released earlier today printed a 3.0% decline. Chinese trade balance data, along with new loans and money supply, are still up for release and might have an impact on Aussie trading. There are no reports due from New Zealand and Canada.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way