Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 15, 2016)

Headline retail sales rose 0.2% instead of just 0.1% while the core figure indicated a 0.1% uptick versus the projected flat reading. Import prices fell 1.1% versus the projected 1.4% slump while the UoM consumer sentiment index slipped from 92.0 to 90.7. US banks are closed for President's Day today.

EUR

The euro returned some of its recent wins to its counterparts last Friday even as German and euro zone GDP readings came in line with expectations of 0.3% growth. Euro zone industrial production fell 1.0% instead of rising by the projected 0.3% figure. Euro zone trade balance is due today and a smaller surplus of 22.4 billion EUR is eyed compared to the previous 22.7 billion EUR surplus.

GBP

The pound managed to hold on to some of its recent wins despite weaker than expected UK quarterly construction output. The report showed a 1.5% increase versus the projected 2.0% gain but still chalked up a recovery from the previous 1.1% drop. Earlier today, UK Rightmove HPI showed a 2.9% gain in prices.

CHF

The franc got back on its feet at the end of the week on the lack of intervention talk from SNB officials. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so the franc could still advance if risk aversion stays in play.

JPY

The yen had another losing day as risk appetite improved and intervention fears weighed on the Japanese currency. Over the weekend, the preliminary GDP reading from Japan showed a 0.4% contraction versus the projected 0.3% reduction in growth. BOJ Governor Kuroda has a speech in parliament today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to advance against their lower-yielding peers thanks to stronger talks of an OPEC compromise. Earlier today, Chinese trade balance came in stronger than expected at a 406 billion CNY surplus versus the projected 389 billion CNY figure. New Zealand quarterly retail sales are due in the next Asian session and a 1.4% gain in the core figure is eyed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way