Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 22, 2013)

After all, the meeting was conducted prior to the release of sentiment-changing reports recently, and traders are still looking for more clues in this week’s Jackson Hole Symposium. Bernanke is set to give the much-awaited keynote address and answer monetary policy questions in the following press conference. In addition, Janet Yellen, who is set to become the next Fed Chairman, is also going to participate in the press conference and it would be interesting to see how she assesses the US economy.

EUR

It’s a big day for the euro as PMI figures are up for release from Germany’s and France’s manufacturing and services sector. Last month, the better than expected results triggered a strong euro rally from the 1.3200 to 1.3400 area against the dollar, as these provided hope that the region is in recovery mode. For August, the flash reports are likely to show another set of upbeat figures, with some projected to climb above the 50.0 mark and show industry expansion. If that’s the case, EUR/USD could sustain its gains to new highs.

GBP

There are no major reports due from the UK today, leaving traders to price in their expectations for the upcoming release of the second quarter GDP figure tomorrow. Strong improvements in the UK economy could be incorporated in this figure, which might come in higher than the previous 0.6% estimate. Recall that traders were a bit disappointed with this figure, although it was higher than the predicted 0.3% uptick, and might get their hopes up for an upward revision. Another disappointment though could erase some of the pound’s recent gains.

CHF

Swiss trade balance is up for release today and might trigger some additional volatility for the franc. The surplus is expected to fall from 2.82 billion CHF to just 2.91 MILLION CHF, which would reflect lower export activity. If that’s the case, the franc could see its losing streak get extended.

JPY

There are no reports due from Japan yet again, leaving the yen vulnerable to risk sentiment. Take note that the potential of higher taxes is currently weighing on sentiment, as market watchers foresee lower spending and growth as a result of this. Stay tuned for updates from Japanese government officials though, as indications of compensating for these higher tax rates could still support the yen.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

Australia is set to print its leading index while China will release the HSBC flash manufacturing PMI for August. Recall that this index, which mostly constitutes smaller industries, has been sliding deeper in contraction and another drop could be very negative for Australia while a bounce could keep AUD afloat. Canada is set to print its retail sales figures in today’s US session and possibly show downside surprises owing to the bleak jobs data for July.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way