Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 7, 2015)

Aside from that, traders are probably positioning ahead of the NFP release later today, as this could serve as a sign of whether or not the Fed can be able to hike interest rates by September. Analysts are expecting to see a 215K increase in hiring, slightly slower compared to the previous month’s gain, but an upside surprise could be enough to get dollar bulls charging. Keep in mind that Challenger job cuts showed a worse than expected increase in layoffs while the ADP report showed a weaker than expected reading, suggesting the possibility of a downside surprise.

EUR

The euro struggled to hold on to its recent gains even though data from the region was stronger than expected. German factory orders picked up by 2.0% versus the projected 0.4% uptick while euro zone retail PMI climbed from 50.4 to 54.2. German and French industrial production and trade balance numbers are lined up for today but traders might be paying closer attention to data from the US.

GBP

Super Thursday turned out to be a disappointment for the pound, as the MPC minutes and the Inflation Report indicated that the BOE isn’t ready to tighten monetary policy just yet. This was in contrast to Governor Carney’s hints that they’re moving closer to hiking interest rates. The central bank upgraded forecasts for growth, wage inflation, and business investment while downgrading projections for employment and CPI. Aside from that, only one MPC member voted to hike rates as opposed to market expectations of seeing two to three policymakers voting to tighten. UK trade balance is lined up today but this might not have such a huge impact on pound movement.

CHF

The franc carried on with its descent, thanks to weaker than expected data from Switzerland. The SECO consumer climate index showed a drop from -6 to -19 instead of the projected -7 figure, indicating an increase in pessimism. For today, the unemployment rate is due and no change to the previous 3.3% figure is eyed.

JPY

The yen had a mixed performance as it also reacted to currency-specific events, just like the US dollar. There have been no major reports out of Japan recently but the BOJ statement today could play a key role in yen price action. Apart from that, the NFP release might have a significant impact on USDJPY movement that might carry on to other yen pairs.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie enjoyed a bit of support from upbeat employment data, as the economy added 38.5K jobs in July versus the projected 10.2K increase. Earlier today, the RBA monetary policy statement showed a less dovish than usual outlook, allowing the Aussie to gain further ground. Meanwhile, Loonie traders are waiting for the release of Canada’s jobs data and Ivey PMI later today. Both reports are slated to show improvements but disappointing readings could spur more Loonie losses. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way