Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 18, 2015)

The Empire State manufacturing index fell from 3.9 to -14.9 instead of rising to the projected 5.0 figure. Meanwhile, the NAHB housing index showed a pickup from 60 to 61, short of the estimated 62 reading. For today, building permits and housing starts data are due and traders are expecting to see a drop from 1.34M to 1.23M for the former and a rise from 1.17M to 1.19M for the latter.

EUR

The euro lost ground in recent trading when the IMF showed reluctance to be part of the third bailout for Greece. There have been no major reports out of the region yesterday and none are lined up today, indicating that Greek bailout updates could continue to set the tone for euro movements.

GBP

The pound was stuck in consolidation recently as traders are still waiting for the UK CPI to be released today. Another flat reading is expected for the headline CPI while the core CPI might show a 0.8% year-over-year increase. Producer prices are expected to chalk up a sharper 1.8% drop compared to the previous 1.3% slide, with additional downside bias due to the recent slump in oil prices. Stronger than expected data could give the pound a boost while weak readings could trigger a selloff.

CHF

The franc sold off against most of its peers when the Swiss retail sales data missed expectations. The report showed a 0.9% annualized slide, worse than the projected 0.6% drop but better than the previous 1.8% tumble. There are no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today, which suggests that risk sentiment and euro zone updates might affect the franc.

JPY

The yen continued to tread carefully against its forex counterparts after Japan showed a 0.4% contraction for Q2. Even though this was slightly better than the projected 0.5% decline in GDP, components of the report reflected declines in exports, investment, and consumer spending. There are no reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls managed to keep their heads above water in recent trading as near-term support areas prevented further losses. Commodities are still looking weak, with oil and gold eyeing further downside. New Zealand will have its global dairy trade auction in the late US session and possibly show a small rebound in prices as Russia removed its ban on milk imports from the country. NZ PPI is also due and a 0.5% decline in input prices is expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way