Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 06, 2016)

The ISM non-manufacturing PMI beat expectations with a rise from 53.4 to 54.5, outpacing the consensus at 54.1. However, the trade balance showed a much wider deficit. Exports and imports both gained, indicating a pickup in external and domestic demand. The FOMC minutes are up for release today.

EUR

The euro continued to consolidate against the dollar since there were no top-tier reports from the euro zone. Retail sales rose 0.2% as expected. Only the German industrial production report is due today and a 1.8% decline is eyed. 

GBP

The pound managed to hold on to some of its gains when the UK services PMI came in mostly in line with expectations. The figure rose from 52.7 to 53.7, just a couple of notches away from the 53.9 consensus but still indicative of stronger growth in the sector. There are no major reports lined up from the UK economy today. 

CHF

The franc was unable to find a clear direction in recent trading since there were no major reports out of Switzerland. Its economic schedule is still empty for today, suggesting further consolidation or sensitivity to any changes in market sentiment. 

JPY

The yen took advantage of the run in risk aversion during the earlier trading sessions, as average cash earnings in Japan showed a stronger than expected 0.9% increase. Only the leading indicators data is due today and a decline is eyed. 

Commodity Currencies 

The comdolls managed to stage a rebound late in the day, buoyed by a decline in API inventories and a rise in dairy prices. The American Petroleum Institute reported a reduction of 4.3 million barrels in stockpiles while the New Zealand GDT auction showed a 2.1% rebound in dairy prices. The RBA kept rates unchanged as expected but gave a mixed statement with an upbeat assessment and a warning on AUD strength. Canada's trade balance showed large declines in both imports and exports. Its Ivey PMI is due today ahead of US crude oil inventories data. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way